AUDJPY Trading on August 16, 2013 33 ITM

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Торгуем AUD/JPY по средам

Данная фундаментальная торговая стратегия эксплуатирует тенденцию валютной пары AUD/JPY статистически чаще падать во время предпоследнего часа перед начислением свопа по средам. Этот день недели особенен тем, что по средам своп в три раза выше, чем в обычные дни (идет начисление еще и за два выходных дня). Неизвестно, почему AUD/JPY, пара с традиционно положительным свопом, продается за 1-2 часа до начисления свопа. Возможно, трейдеры (а точнее хедж-фонды) с большими длинными позициями предпочитают частично закрываться именно в это время, чтобы не сильно раскачивать рынок.

Как говорится, нашел тенденцию — пробуй, а то, что необычное поведение AUD/JPY логично объясняется, это повод присмотреться к ней обстоятельно.

Рынок: Forex;
Валютные пары: AUD/JPY;
Таймфрейм: H1;
Индикаторы форекс: не используются;
Стратегия: фундаментальная;
Защитные ордера: не устанавливаются.

Правила торговой стратегии

В 23:00 по Москве (GMT+3 или GMT+4 в период режима летнего времени) откройте короткую позицию. Не устанавливайте уровни StopLoss или TakeProfit. Когда откроется новый бар (0:00 уже четверга) закройте позицию.

Примеры работы торговой стратегии

Среда 2009-10-14 Среда 2009-10-21

Среда 2009-10-28 Среда 2009-11-04

Примеры графиков показывают последние четыре среды (14-е, 21-е, 28-е октября и 4-е ноября 2009 г), H1 бары, которые формировались в 23:00 по Москве, помечены красным эллипсом. Если торговать каждую среду с 7-го января по 4-е ноября 2009 г., то суммарная статистическая прибыль от бычьих позиций в этот час составит 400 пипсов (за 44 недели). Это около 9.1 пипса за сделку, что выше среднего спреда на AUD/JPY (5 пипсов). Конечно, на некоторых средах стратегия дает убыток, но, в общем, при долгосрочном использовании, forex стратегия — прибыльна.

Иван Борисов

Человек, которые знает все о торговых стратегиях на форекс! Еженедельно с 2008 года он предлагает нам различные варианты и возможности торговли на валютном рынке Forex: авторские методики и популярные стратегии из Интернет.

AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, EUR/AUD: Australian Employment Report on Deck

AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, EUR/AUD: AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR IN FOCUS AHEAD OF JOBS DATA DUE

  • AUD price action will eye upcoming Australian employment data due for release early during Thursday’s trading session at 00:30 GMT
  • The Australian Dollar stands to swing in response to changes in RBA rate cut expectations as forex market participants react to the Australian jobs report
  • Check out the IG Client Sentiment Report for real-time insight on changes in trader positioning

The Australian Dollar comes into focus with Australian employment change and unemployment rate data for September set to cross the wires early Thursday at 00:30 GMT. Although the RBA has cut its benchmark interest rate – the overnight cash rate (OCR) – to an all-time low of 0.75% earlier this month, the central bank stated in its monetary policy decision press release that “ It is reasonable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates will be required in Australia to reach full employment and achieve the inflation target .”

The RBA added that the Governing Board will “ continue to monitor developments, including in the labour market, and is prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy, full employment and the achievement of the inflation target over time .” Consequently, high-impact economic data like Thursday’s release of Australian employment data has potential to materially sway the market’s expectations for more RBA rate cuts and Australian Dollar price action in turn.

AUSTRALIAN EMPLOYMENT CHANGE & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

While the prior Australian jobs report topped the median economist estimate of 15K for the headline figure with a total 34.7K total jobs added, the details of the employment data were much less inspiring. The trend in both total employment change – and more importantly full time employment change – seem to be heading lower while the Australian unemployment rate has recently ticked higher to 5.3%.

That said, the RBA could be swayed to cut interest rates yet again as the central bank further loosens financial conditions to soak up excess slack in the Australian labor market if the September jobs report disappoints. On the other hand, early signs that the US-China trade war could be taking a turn for the better following the recent ‘ phase 1 trade agreement ’ between the two economic powerhouses touted by President Trump combined with another overall healthy Australian jobs report could keep additional RBA interest rate cuts at bay (at least for the time being).

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) INTEREST RATE TARGET PROBABILITIES (DECEMBER 2020)

According to the latest pricing of overnight swaps, markets are estimating a rough 60% probability that the Reserve Bank of Australia cuts the OCR again from its current 0.75% target before year-end. There is a 47.0% chance that the central bank’s policy interest rate will be cut by 25-basis points, a 13.6% chance of the OCB being lowered by 50-basis points and a 39.4% priced probability that the RBA leaves rates unchanged through December.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR IMPLIED VOLATILITY & TRADING RANGES

Ultimately, the uncertainty and risk surrounding a high-impact economic data release – like the Australia employment change – typically bids up implied volatility. AUD/USD overnight implied volatility of 9.22% is above its 20-day average of 7.23% and ranks in the top 80 th percentile of readings taken over the last 6-months. AUD/JPY overnight implied volatility of 11.09% is above its 20-day average of 9.41% and ranks in the top 70 th percentile of readings taken over the last 6-months.

EUR/AUD overnight implied volatility of 8.79% is above its 20-day average of 7.05% and ranks in the top 80 th percentile of readings taken over the last 6-months. GBP/AUD is expected to be the most volatile Australian Dollar currency pair during Thursday’s trading session with an overnight implied volatility of 23.64% as the EU and UK scramble to reach a Brexit deal . Implied trading ranges are calculated with a 68% statistical probability and indicates a 1-standard deviation move from spot estimated with the latest overnight implied volatility reading .

AUD/USD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (JULY 08, 2020 TO OCTOBER 16, 2020)

The rebound in AUD/USD since the start of the month owing largely to US-China trade talk optimism seems to be running out of steam. The Australian Dollar’s broad downtrend highlighted by the lower swing highs printed on July 18 and September 12 could setup spot AUD/USD for a retest of multi-year lows beneath the 0.6700 price level.

This bearish scenario would likely warrant greater credence if the September Australian Jobs data disappoints since the currency pair has pivoted back below confluent support provided by its 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 50-day simple moving average . Conversely, aside from support-turned-resistance, the 0.6800 handle and month-to-date swing high could keep a lid on a potential upside.

AUD/JPY PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (JUNE 16, 2020 TO OCTOBER 16, 2020)

AUD/JPY has also attempted to stage a rebound this month but the sentiment-geared currency pair appears to be forming a wedge pattern between rising and falling trendlines. Seeing that the Aussie-Yen is a commonly used forex pair for carry trades , AUD/JPY price action is particularly sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations.

In turn, it is possible that a healthy Australian employment report could squash RBA rate cut bets and propel AUD/JPY above the descending trendline, but technical resistance also posed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 74.000 handle could hinder upward moves. Looking lower underpins the 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages as technical support in addition to the mid-point retracement of AUD/JPY’s steep slide during July and into August.

EUR/AUD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (JUNE 13, 2020 TO OCTOBER 16, 2020)

EUR/AUD could be breaking out above its downtrend resistance line extended from the lower highs recorded on August 6 and August 25. With the EU Summit underway and Brexit headlines crossing the wires, spot EUR/AUD price action could be particularly volatile. A possible upside target could be the 38.2% Fib. Technical support could be looked to around the mid-point retracement of the currency pair’s trading range since mid-July as well as its 50-day SMA, 61.8% Fib and uptrend line connecting the series of higher lows printed since September.

— Written by Rich Dvorak , Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

AUD/JPY: rebound from 92.00

Despite a larger number of employed, the unemployment rate in Australia in July grew from 6.1% to 6.3%.

The AUD/JPY pair is supported by the difference in interest rates in Japan (0.1%) and Australia (2%), and extra-soft monetary policy by the Bank of Japan.

The pressure on the pair comes from low inflation in Australia, falling commodities prices, economic slowdown and the stock market crisis in China.

On Friday, the Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement and the Governor Kuroda Speech are due, at 6 am (GMT +3). However, the key event of the week that needs to be watched is the release on NFPR in the US at 3:30 pm (GMT +3). The publication would allow seeing the prospects of the interest rate hike in the US in September.

Support and resistance

The AUD/JPY pair rebounded from the resistance levels at 92.00 (EMA200) and 91.55 (EMA144 on the 4-hour chart) and stabilised near the level of 91.40 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).

The pair continues moving within a wide (89.50-93.45), medium (90.75-92.50) and narrow (91.00-92.00) ranges.

The breakout of the level of 92.00 would allow the pair to grow to 92.75, 93.45, 94.30, while the breakdown of the leve l of 90.75 would let it fall to 89.40, 88.00, 82.00.

Technical indicators on the 4-hour chart turned down. On the daily chart, they remain in the buy zone.

Support levels: 91.40, 91.00, 90.75, 90.00, 89.40.

Resistance levels: 92.00, 92.75, 93.45.

Place pending buy orders at the level of 92.50 with targets at 92.75, 93.45 and stop-loss at 91.80.

Pending sell orders can be placed at 91.20 with targets at 91.00, 90.80, 89.40, 88.25 and stop-loss at 91.70.

AUD/JPY

AUD/JPY chart This market’s chart. This is a visual representation of the price action in the market, over a certain period of time. You can use this to help gauge a market’s performance.

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The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%.

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Details for AUD/JPY –

Minimum size 1

Contract size AUD 100,000

One Pip means 0.01 JPY/AUD

Value of one Pip JPY 1,000 (USD 9.22)

Margin 0.5%

Minimum stop distance 2

Minimum guaranteed stop distance 5

Your aggregate position in this market will be margined in the following tiers:

Tier Position size Margin
1 0 – 16.14 Contracts 0.5%
2 16.14 – 161.45 Contracts 3%
3 161.45 – 242.18 Contracts 10%
4 242.18 + Contracts 15%

If your aggregate position is larger than Tier 1, your margin requirement will not be reduced by non-guaranteed stops.

Please note: we have tried to ensure that the information here is as accurate as possible, but it is intended for guidance only and any errors will not be binding on us.

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Use this to see how IG client accounts with positions on this market are trading other markets. Data is calculated to the nearest 1%, and updated automatically every 15 minutes.

This is calculated to the nearest 1%.

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