Bitcoin is moving up, here’s what will happen next

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What will happen to Bitcoin in 2020?

Anyone who has not heard something about bitcoin this year must have been hiding under a rock. This has truly been the year for cryptocurrencies, with bitcoin leading the charge. Other virtual currencies have also been making headlines, though, including the likes of ether, litecoin, ripple, etc., but bitcoin seems to be the one everyone is talking about.

The story is also far from over, and 2020 may be just another chapter. So far, from what we have seen in 2020, bitcoin trading can be very exciting, perhaps even too exciting or dizzying. That is why I have made this post to look at what 2020 holds for bitcoin for all those interested in investing. Before we get there, first let us have a look at the story so far.

The highlights of 2020

Looking at a chart of bitcoin prices shows a clear dominant uptrend for most of the year. That should already tell you bitcoin value is going up and should be invested in. if this were the price chart for a stock, I would not hesitate advising you to go long. However, I’ve learned to look deeper when it comes to virtual currencies because they are not the same thing. The volatility in cryptocurrency markets is very high and more caution needs to be taken.

Bitcoin set a record high just after the new year fireworks were dying down, setting a precedent for the rest of the year. On the second day of January, bitcoin broke through and crossed the $1,000 value barrier, an all-time high (ATH) at the time of $1,190. Soon thereafter, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) began investigating Chinese cryptocurrency exchanges. The investigations were meant to crack down on money laundering and unauthorized financing. These moves sent bitcoin value tumbling by about 12% to reach $767 in a week.

At the time, the Chinese market for bitcoin was the largest in the world, but other countries like Japan, India, South Korea and even the US were also using bitcoin more and more. Therefore, the price of bitcoin resumed its uptrend with increased demand from other countries. By the first week of March, bitcoin had reached another ATH above $1,300 in anticipation of the Winklevoss ETF. However, the SEC turned down the proposal, and bitcoin shed more than 15% of its value to reach $1,060.

A new ATH was set above $2,000 in May after Japan had legalized bitcoin as legal tender. Further actions by the PBoC to halt withdrawals caused a sharp drop of 30% within 2 days, but bitcoin stabilized, recovered and rallied beyond $3,000 in June. July was a dark month for bitcoin as it finally dropped below $2,000 due to fears of a hard fork. Bitcoin developers has reached an impasse and fears of a hard fork were becoming real.

The bitcoin fork did indeed happen, but it had an unexpected result. Instead of reducing the value of bitcoin, it actually propelled it upwards to $3,500. Another ATH of $5,000 was reached in September due to increasing demand, but this was only shortlived. There had been rumours the PBoC was planning to halt all bitcoin trading in China, a rumour which was later confirmed. This was a huge blow taking bitcoin value down below $3,000, but again it recovered to reach an ATH of $6,000 last week.

What can we learn from bitcoin’s price movements?

The main takeaway is that bitcoin is very resilient. Despite all the pitfalls and opposition facing it, the virtual currency has managed to keep rising. Unlike most markets that are driven by moves by huge market players like banks and hedge funds, bitcoin’s success is largely thanks to the individual investor and speculator. In fact, most hedge fund managers and investment banks have been warning against investing in bitcoin. Their argument is that bitcoin is just a bubble, even worse than the dotcom bubble, and that the crash would be hard and fast.

The other important thing to note is just how volatile this market can be. Rapid spikes and dips in bitcoin value can occur at any moment in response to news from any corner of the globe. 10%, 15% and even 30% moves or more are not unusual, and can occur within days. Some investors have been stopped out of long positions when there was a rapid dip in prices, only for them to come back up the next day.

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How will bitcoin perform in 2020?

Bitcoin is now more than 8 years old, but it still remains a mystery to most people. Most of the focus on bitcoin has been concentrated this year compared to the previous year when only enthusiasts had started talking about it. Nevertheless, bitcoin is now a reality and it is not about to fade away anytime soon. 2020 is surely going to be an interesting year for the cryptocurrency, but all we can do is speculate.

Overall, bitcoin’s value has risen by over 500% so far in 2020, and the majority of concensus predicts further moves to the upside. Among those expecting further price spikes are technical analysts who overlay bitcoin price movements to Fibonacci retracement levels. Looking at the forex charts online, this seems to be very clear-cut and other technical analysts will concur. (Using the Fibonacci retracement)

Besides, the minor (and sometimes major) dips in price can be viewed just as market correction with potential to keep going up since the prices remain above the moving averages. (The Elliot wave theory and how to use it)

As for the fundamental analysts, they look at shifting regulations surrounding bitcoin as signs of bullish momentum. Several countries including Vietnam, India and Russia are considering legalizing bitcoin instead of banning it. Besides, there is massive demand worldwide that is expected to keep rising even in 2020 as more people become interested. (Fundamentals of fundamental trading)

On the other hand, detractors remain to be the bankers and hedge fund managers who don’t ‘trust’ bitcoin. Their attitude and impact on bitcoin prices is, however, minimal and cannot change the overwhelming positive attitude by the individual investors. Despite their reluctance, some of the best banks offering forex trading also offer bitcoin trading to their clients.

Therefore, I do believe that bitcoin will keep rising in value all through 2020 and perhaps even in the years to come. As an investor myself, I can confidently encourage all those curious to give it a try and watch as the winds keep blowing us forward.

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If you’re still not convinced, how about listening to Bill Gates talk about it:

Bitcoin Nears $9,000; What Happens Next?

Bitcoin continues to climb higher and is currently trading for just shy of $9,000.

Rising Faster and Bolder Than the Sun

The currency continues to impress us all with its recent string of price gains, which began in early April of 2020. At that time, the currency rose beyond the $5,000 mark, something many traders and enthusiasts thought they’d never see again. That means that at press time, it has nearly tripled its value in just two months from where it was in March.

2020 has certainly proven to be a solid year for the digital asset. Following consistent price drops in 2020 that saw the currency hitting the $3,500 mark in late November, bitcoin had ultimately lost more than 70 percent of its value since striking its all-time high of nearly $20,000 in December of 2020. Many crypto traders saw all their stashes disappear within 11 months; it was an ugly sight, and one that many believed would never be remedied.

However, things have ultimately turned around in 2020, with the currency striking a position that it hasn’t held in more than a year. The last time bitcoin even came close to $9,000 was during the summer months of 2020, and the last time it saw the $9,000 range was in February of that year.

Despite all the good news, however, some analysts seem incapable of making up their minds regarding where bitcoin is likely to go in the coming weeks. One crypto blogger, Kevin Godbold, thinks a dead cat bounce is inevitable, and suggests that bitcoin could potentially take a nosedive sooner than we might anticipate. He comments:

The buying probably caused the share price to move up. A little at first, but seeing the movement, others maybe started saying, ‘Bitcoin’s moving,’ and more buying happened. Because of that, bitcoin went higher, and the higher it went, the more the momentum speculators piled in. The more they piled in, the higher bitcoin moved. I think that description is the essence of what causes a dead cat bounce. Nothing has changed in the case for or against bitcoin, but speculation happened.

At the same time, another source claims that the bitcoin technical charts currently show the digital asset preparing itself to reach $10,000 in the coming weeks, virtually the opposite of what Godbold suggests.

Bitcoin’s Prospects Are Solid in the Distant Future

A recent panel of cryptocurrency experts – assembled by the finance firm Finder – predict that by December 2020, bitcoin will be trading for well over $9,600. This is good in the sense that bitcoin will spike further, but it’s a little disappointing that fewer rises will seemingly take place over the following seven months.

At the same time, the panel also believes that the $20,000 mark hit in December 2020 will be surpassed at some point in the future.

Перевод “what will happen next” на русский

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Are You Ready for What Happens If Satoshi’s Coins Move?

There’s nothing remarkable about a bitcoin transaction; it happens hundreds of thousands of times a day. But there’s one set of addresses whose contents are watched with hawk eyes. Should so much as a satoshi move from one of those wallets, it will spark global headlines and make the markets go loco. That’s because those wallets belong to Satoshi Nakamoto and if his coins move, all hell breaks loose.

Speculating About Satoshi’s Next Move Is Wargames for Bitcoiners

Governments frequently play out wargames in which they enact various doomsday scenarios. A nuclear missile from a rogue state; a dirty bomb detonated by a terrorist group; chemical warfare on the streets of a major city: all these scenarios, and more, have been played out countless times by army generals the world over.

Speculating about what would happen if Satoshi’s coins were to move is bitcoin’s wargames equivalent. This isn’t conjecture for the sake of it, in other words: it’s a serious exercise for an event that would have serious repercussions if it were to materialize. Suppose you wake up tomorrow to learn that one of Satoshi’s estimated one million BTC, after lying dormant for almost a decade, has moved to the Bitfinex hot wallet.

What would be your next move? Do you panic sell and jump into tether? Do you FOMO into buying more BTC? Or do you watch the blockchain and wait, trying to figure out Satoshi’s next move? It’s probably a good idea to work out your answer now, because if Satoshi’s coins ever do move from their current resting place, you’ll have mere minutes – if that – to act before the market does.

What Did Satoshi Mean by This?

To grasp where the market might move if Satoshi’s stash were to move (and why it would almost certainly be downward), it’s necessary to consider who bitcoin’s creator might be. There would appear to be three rational hypotheses:

1. Satoshi is one guy (or girl) who, for the sake of argument, we’ll call Satoshi Nakamoto.

2. Satoshi is a group of people who, for the sake of argument, we’ll call Hal Finney, Nick Szabo, and Gavin Andresen.

3. Satoshi is a government agency who, for the sake of argument, we’ll call the NSA.

Of the three scenarios, number 1 would present the biggest unknown. On the one hand, coins moving from Satoshi’s wallet would induce market panic at the prospect of one million BTC being dumped by their owner. On the other hand, if the incident were to presage Satoshi’s return from the digital wilderness with a newfound determination to contribute to Bitcoin Core’s development, and eight years of brilliant ideas to share with the world, well, that could prove very bullish for bitcoin. Especially if Satoshi then locked away the rest of his fortune in multi-sig to demonstrate his determination to never cash out.

For those who like their biblical allegories, bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator is synonymous with the book of Genesis. Satoshi promising never to flood the markets would be the equivalent of God sending a rainbow as his promise not to flood the earth, as recorded in Genesis 9.

Make no mistake, bitcoin is better without a strong leader, as Satoshi recognized right from the start. But if he was to return it would move markets like the great flood moved mountains. And, while we’re playing wargames, if Satoshi were to return and declare Bitcoin Cash to be his original vision, the flippening might happen faster than you could fit the puzzle piece to log into Binance and load up on BCH.

But enough about option 1, as we still have two alternative doomsday scenarios to play out…

If Satoshi Is a They, Anything’s Possible

If Satoshi is the work of several people, as has been theorized, the movement of a coin from one of the earliest wallets could signal dissent. It could herald acrimony in the camp, spurring one of bitcoin’s founding fathers to move their stack in readiness to sell. If that happens, expect huge volatility, another possible fork, and denials from the remaining possible Satoshis who may have been doxxed during the course of their erstwhile colleague going rogue. The only upside to this outcome is that if Satoshi is the work of three people, that could mean only one third of their one million BTC being dumped. Even so, 330k BTC being offloaded on the open market would make quite a dent.

If Spooks, No One’s Safe

The third possibility – that bitcoin was developed by a government agency such as the NSA – is perhaps the most intriguing. Bitcoin uses SHA256, a hash function partly developed by the NSA, and thus it’s not surprising that many suspect the cryptocurrency to be the agency’s handiwork. If so, that fact is immaterial in the here and now; after all, Tor was in part developed by DARPA, but that hasn’t stopped hackers, whistleblowers, and dissidents from trusting it implicitly. That’s the beauty of open source code. There are no backdoors in bitcoin because anyone can inspect its code and propose modifications to it, as developers have done over the past nine years. And yet…

And yet, if it transpired that a three-letter agency was behind bitcoin, owning 5% of the total supply would be their not-so-secret weapon. When you own one million bitcoins, you don’t need to backdoor its code: you simply wait until it starts to threaten the global financial system then begin moving coins from Satoshi’s wallet just to mess with the proles. Bitcoin crashes hard, everyone but the earliest adopters gets rekt, and trust in decentralized cryptocurrency is gone for good. If the CIA or NSA created bitcoin, moving coins from Satoshi’s wallet is crypto’s very own Mutually Assured Destruction.

First the Gutter, Then the Stars

Regardless of which of these outcomes plays out, there is some good news for bitcoin hodlers. In the short to medium term, Satoshi’s coins moving – even without them being sold on an exchange – won’t be good for the price of BTC. But in the long-term, the effects of such a maneuver are limited. Sure, it will almost certainly depress prices, but it won’t kill off the things that made bitcoin so precious in the first place: a decentralized P2P currency that no one can censor or control. Satoshi, if he or they returns, can stall bitcoin, but remains powerless to stop it. It’s too late for that: the virus has already spread. There can be no going back.

Do you think Satoshi’s coins will ever move? Let us know in the comments section below.

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