Macron is the French president! What Does it Mean for Binary Options Trading

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Emmanuel Macron: What are the French president’s policies?

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France has chosen for its new president a man who had never stood for election previously and whose party did not exist a little over a year ago.

Emmanuel Macron, 39, has promised to “work for everyone” and sees his programme as straddling both left and right.

He has picked a centre-right prime minister and candidates from across the political spectrum to fight legislative elections in June for the party, now rebranded as La République en marche (Republic on the move).

But once his government assumes its final shape, what does he intend to change and how will he achieve the national renewal he has promised?

Reviving the economy

Overhauling France’s economy is vital to the Macron plan. Without significant advances, he will struggle to convince Germany of another big idea, for eurozone reform.

Mr Macron’s big challenges are:

  • 10% unemployment, and nearly one in four among under-25s
  • Bloated public spending (56% of GDP compared with 44% in Germany and 39% in the UK)
  • Low economic growth

His twin aims are to boost investment and set up a “new growth model” that is both good for social mobility and the environment.

Spend and save

Some have described his plan to mix targeted public spending with fiscal discipline as a Nordic model.

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In the next five years he wants to make budget savings of €60bn (£51bn; $65bn), so that France sticks to the EU’s government deficit limit of 3% of GDP (total output). Public servants would be cut in number by 120,000 – through natural wastage, possibly to soften opposition from France’s powerful unions.

He would simultaneously reinvest €50bn and create a separate €10bn fund for renewing industry.

France’s retirement age will remain at 62, but sweeping reforms are planned to the generous state pension schemes, to bring them into line with private schemes.

Reforming labour market

Mr Macron would not scrap France’s famed 35-hour work week: the 35 hours is now a threshold triggering overtime payment.

Instead, he would try to introduce further flexibility around a basic legal framework of labour rights and rules, allowing firms to negotiate deals with their staff on hours and pay. Extra hours worked would be free of social security deductions.

He has promised to help businesses by cutting corporation tax from 33% to 25%. But failing businesses would not be propped up, and the focus would be on training those made redundant.

He wants to bring unemployment down to 7% by 2022 and extend unemployment benefits to groups not currently entitled, such as self-employed entrepreneurs and farmers.

People’s purchasing power would be boosted by a cut in social security contributions, worth about €500 annually for someone on a monthly net salary of €2,200.

Europe

Mr Macron is an unabashed Europhile and he walked on stage to give his first public speech as president-elect to Beethoven’s Ode to Joy, the anthem of the European Union. His election was warmly welcomed in both Brussels and Berlin.

Yet he has said candidly that reform is needed in Brussels as well as Paris if the pressing problems facing France are to be addressed. And this may set him on a collision course with Germany, because France and Germany have starkly different conceptions of its future.

Put bluntly, while Germany favours a broad, expansionist union, France prefers a deeper, more integrated bloc.

Mr Macron would give the eurozone a separate budget, finance minister and parliament of MEPs from the 19 countries that use the euro.

He also wants more shared responsibility within the eurozone and believes Germany’s big trade surplus has to be rebalanced. Both plans could cost Germany dear.

In Brexit negotiations, Mr Macron will be keen that the UK has “no undue advantages” over the rest of Europe. He will demand that EU single market rules apply fully to all trade partners.

He is also an open proponent of free trade deals like Ceta – the EU-Canada deal and he has spoken publicly of his desire to lure French expats home from the UK.

Immigration

Mr Macron would create a 5,000-strong force of EU border guards, make fluency in French the main qualification for obtaining French nationality and give all religious leaders comprehensive training in France’s secular values.

He wants refugees entitled to protection will be welcomed, and asylum claims to be settled within six months. But failed asylum seekers would be returned to their home countries immediately.

Foreign relations

Mr Macron supports multilateral institutions such as the UN Security Council, but also supports the promotion of the French language and Francophone institutions as “an essential vector of our influence and a weapon against the spread of radicalism”.

He is a critic of Russian policy and backs EU sanctions put in place after the Ukraine crisis.

On Syria, he thinks President Bashar al-Assad should answer for his crimes before an international tribunal. On foreign aid, he would like to increase spending in Africa (raising overseas aid to the European target of 0.7% of gross national income) but wants to help countries stand on their own two feet in defence terms.

Defence and security

Amid an ongoing state of emergency in France following a string of attacks over the past two years, Mr Macron says he will reform police workloads and procedures, recruit 10,000 new police officers and expand prisons to house an extra 15,000 inmates.

He would create an EU defence fund to promote joint military projects and set up a permanent European headquarters.

He has also pledged to raise spending on defence to the Nato benchmark of 2% of GDP by 2025 and review military bases in Africa.

Education

In his manifesto, education is listed as top priority.

In areas of special need – notably poor suburbs (banlieues) – he would limit class sizes in primary schools to 12 pupils per teacher.

He would ban children’s use of mobile phones at school, and introduce a “Cultural Pass” for 18-year-olds worth €500 to spend on cultural pursuits such as the cinema, theatre, and books.

Political reform

Mr Macron opposes MPs working as consultants or employing family members. He would cut the total number of parliamentary deputies and senators by about a third.

Energy and the environment

Mr Macron calls for half of food provided in school and work canteens to be organic or locally produced. He would promote France as a world leader in developing green technologies and wants to renovate one million poorly insulated homes.

Macron Says NATO Is Experiencing ‘Brain Death’ Because of Trump

The French president wonders whether NATO is still committed to collective defense, denounces American unilateralism and calls for more European autonomy.

BRUSSELS — French President Emmanuel Macron shocked allies in an interview published on Thursday, saying that he did not know whether NATO’s commitment to collective defense was still valid and that the alliance was experiencing “brain death” because of a lack of strategic coordination and leadership from the United States.

“What we are currently experiencing is the brain death of NATO,” Mr. Macron told The Economist magazine. He said the United States under President Trump appeared to be “turning its back on us,” notably by pulling troops out of northeastern Syria without notice, and he called on Europeans, as he has often done, to do more in their own defense with the aim of “strategic autonomy.’’

Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany responded unusually sharply to what she called Mr. Macron’s “drastic words,” which she does not share. “That is not my point of view,” Ms. Merkel said in Berlin when asked about Mr. Macron’s remarks.

“I don’t think that such sweeping judgments are necessary, even if we have problems and need to pull together,” Ms. Merkel said. “NATO remains vital to our security.”

Asked for his own response, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo praised NATO in the eastern German city of Leipzig, after spending the morning touring the former border that divided East Germany from the West, where he was an officer in the United States Army.

“I think NATO remains an important, critical, perhaps historically one of the most critical strategic partnerships in all of recorded history,” he said.

NATO was crucial to the collapse of the Iron Curtain that divided Europe for decades, he said. It was the cooperation and “remarkable work” of NATO’s democratic partners “that created freedom and brought millions of people out of very, very difficult situations.”

Mr. Pompeo then went on to defend Mr. Trump’s persistent demands that Germany and other allies increase military spending to the NATO goal of 2 percent of gross domestic product.

Foreign Minister Heiko Maas of Germany, with Mr. Pompeo, also rejected Mr. Macron’s characterization. “I do not believe NATO is brain dead,” he said. “I firmly believe in international cooperation.”

NATO leaders will gather in London for an abbreviated summit meeting on Dec. 3 and 4 to mark the alliance’s 70th anniversary. Mr. Macron’s pessimistic views about its future are bound to overshadow the meeting, which was already designed to be brief given Mr. Trump’s own harsh criticism of NATO allies for not spending enough in their own defense.

Mr. Macron also wants Europeans to spend more on defense, but in pursuit of their own strategic goals, in collaboration with NATO but not beholden to it.

His remarks were clearly in response to some of Mr. Trump’s unilateral actions. “You have no coordination whatsoever of strategic decision-making between the United States and its NATO allies. None,” Mr. Macron said.

‘‘You have an uncoordinated aggressive action by another NATO ally, Turkey, in an area where our interests are at stake,” he added. “There has been no NATO planning, nor any coordination.’’

Turkey’s military operation against Kurdish forces in northern Syria was opposed by fellow NATO members like France, but made possible by Mr. Trump’s sudden withdrawal of United States forces, against the advice of American officials, after a telephone conversation with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey.

NATO functions well in the military sphere, coordinating armies and commands, Mr. Macron said. But “strategically and politically, we need to recognize that we have a problem,” he said. “We should reassess the reality of what NATO is in light of the commitment of the United States.’’

In fact, despite Mr. Trump’s often truculent criticism and his own early reluctance to support collective defense, he has authorized a sizable increase in the American commitment of money and troops to NATO and European defense, including putting American troops in Poland and rotating through the Baltic nations.

Even France, a nuclear power and a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, is not reaching the NATO goal, projected by NATO to spend 1.84 percent of gross domestic product on defense this year.

The interview with Mr. Macron took place on Oct. 21 in his Paris office in French, but was not released until Thursday by The Economist, in both French and English.

Mr. Macron’s real worry seemed to be the sleepwalking drift of Europe, caught between Russia, China and the United States. “All this has led to the exceptional fragility of Europe, which if it can’t think of itself as a global power, will disappear,” he said.

Mr. Macron has pushed for closer European integration, a rapprochement with Russia, a tougher line on Brexit and an end to the enlargement of the European Union until the process can be rethought.

The remarks reflected both his striving for a leadership role in a Europe, where Ms. Merkel is perceived to be weakened and Britain is leaving, and also his move to the right for his own domestic political purposes.

But his comments brought some sharp criticism from analysts.

François Heisbourg, a French defense expert, said that Mr. Macron, who loves to talk, “is speaking like a policy-detached think-tanker” and not the leader of a key NATO ally. Mr. Heisbourg called Mr. Macron’s comments “bizarre” and “dangerous” for a head of state.

Mr. Macron’s comments “will really damage NATO and could be seized upon by its opponents, including Trump,” Thomas Wright, a senior fellow at Washington’s Brookings Institution, wrote on Twitter.

He called the interview “deliberate, provocative and catastrophic,” and added that Mr. Macron “increasingly acts unilaterally without coordinating with the rest of the E.U. or even without informing his own officials and government colleagues.”

Ulrich Speck, a German analyst, said in a Twitter response: “With Macron saying that NATO is ‘brain-dead,’ it becomes clearer what ‘strategic autonomy’ means for him: A Europe without NATO.” His words seemed a direct challenge to Berlin, too, Mr. Speck said.

Shashank Joshi, the Economist’s defense editor, said: “I cannot imagine how Macron could possibly have thrown a bigger stink-bomb toward NATO ahead of the London summit of leaders in December. Extraordinary words, and extraordinary timing.’’

Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s secretary-general, was also in Berlin for celebrations of the 30th anniversary on Saturday of the fall of the Berlin Wall. He praised NATO and the American role in Europe.

“The reunification of Germany and Europe would have been impossible without the United States’ security guarantee,” he said. “Any attempt to distance Europe from North America will not only weaken the trans-Atlantic alliance, it also risks dividing Europe itself.”

Melissa Eddy contributed reporting from Berlin.

Стратегия торговли бинарными опционами «По тренду»

А вот теперь давайте перейдём к теории. Перед тем как понять, что такое торговля по тренду, нужно чётко определить, что собой, собственно, представляет тренд. Под трендом в торговле на бинарных опционах (и не только в ней) понимают постоянное движение стоимости актива в одном направлении (вверх или вниз). В зависимости от направления выделяют три разновидности трендов: восходящий, нисходящий и боковой. Рассмотрим все три примера на реальных скриншотах из моей практики сделок с бинарными опционами.

Восходящий тренд

Обратите внимание: стоимость актива стабильно растёт. Нет, конечно, спады на графике есть, и они неизбежны, но смотрите: каждый последующий подъём находится на более высокой точке, чем предыдущий. И, главное, каждый спад тоже: опускания до уровня предыдущего спада не происходит. Следовательно, мы имеем дело со стабильным восходящим трендом. График цены при этом может достигать уровня поддержки или даже заходить за него, образуя новый максимум.

Как ставить в этой ситуации? Конечно, на повышение. При таком стабильном тренде тенденция к восхождению останется, так что можно смело открывать сделку.

«Ловить» тренды лучше всего с помощью Живого Графика. На нём можно настроить индикатор Линейной Регрессии, и благодаря этому индикатору вы будете видеть и тренд, и направление тренда по интересующим вас активам. Конечно, получив в распоряжение такую информацию, вы сможете делать прогнозы на бинарные опционы с гораздо большей точностью, что приведет к увеличению прибыли.

Нисходящий тренд

На этом графике вы видите явное и стабильное снижение стоимости актива. Что касается спадов и подъемов, тут всё аналогично восходящему тренду, только наоборот. Каждый спад проходит до более низкого уровня, чем предыдущий. Каждый подъем, напротив, соответствует все меньшему и меньшему значению. Данный тренд (представленный на рисунке) тоже можно счесть стабильным и спрогнозировать, что в ближайшее время стоимость актива будет снижаться.

Как ставить в таком случае? Естественно, на понижение.

Открываем опцион — и получаем вознаграждение за внимательность!

Работая по нисходящему тренду, удобно пользоваться индикатором Линейной Регрессии. Как и в случае с восходящим трендом, этот индикатор прибавляет наглядности и позволяет прогнозировать исходы сделок на бинарных опционахс большой точностью — конечно, это положительно скажется на ваших доходах от трейдинга.

Боковой тренд (флэт)

Направление такого тренда представляет собой не диагональную, а горизонтальную линию. Это значит, что направление в ту или другую сторону у стоимости актива отсутствует. Как действовать при таком тренде? Никак. Лучше вообще не открывайте опционы, потому что вероятность правильного прогноза очень мала, и процесс сравним с подбрасыванием монетки. Соответственно, торговать бинарными опционами по тренду нужно при восходящем или нисходящем тренде, но не при боковом. Боковой тренд многие аналитики и вовсе не считают «настоящим» трендом, и я склонна с ними соглашаться.

Совершать сделки можно и против тренда, однако новичкам этого делать не рекомендуется. Да, многие трейдеры, например, торгуют на повышение до уровня поддержки и на понижение — после того, как график касается этой линии. Такую стратегию можно считать оправданной, так как с её помощью можно совершить особенно выгодную сделку, однако риск будет слишком большим, чтобы рекомендовать неопытным трейдерам работать подобным образом.

Сформулируем основные преимущества торговли бинарными опционами по тренду:

  1. Это просто. Справиться с визуальным определением тренда способен трейдер с минимальным опытом. Для многих других стратегий необходима серьезная теоретическая и практическая подготовка — здесь же требуется лишь немного уметь анализировать графики. А использование индикаторов и вовсе значительно облегчает трейдеру эту задачу. Он даже не обязан знать, что такое фундаментальные показатели, а не то что следить за ними. Конечно, чтобы достичь действительно серьёзных успехов, нужно знать как можно больше, и ограничиться одним видом торговли никак не получится. Но использовать эту стратегию как инструмент обучения и помощник в первых шагах на рынке бинарных опционов вполне себе можно: более того, она именно для этого лучше всего и подходит.
  2. Это удобно. В предыдущем пункте я немного неточно выразилась: не «индикаторов», а «индикатора». Вам понадобится один-единственный индикатор: Линейной регрессии. Так что запутаться в графиках, значениях, линиях просто нереально! Вообще, бинарные опционы (в отличие, например, от форекса) позволяют обходиться небольшим количеством графиков и индикаторов. Привлекательность сделок по опционам для начинающих трейдеров во многом обусловлена именно этим.
  3. Это можно совмещать с другими стратегиями. Можно одновременно торговать по новостям, использовать безындикаторный анализ и так далее. В любом случае проверенная и надежная торговля по тренду вас не подведет. В спорных ситуациях руководствуйтесь её простейшими сигналами, и это пойдет вам на благо. Опытные трейдеры обычно используют эту стратегию как вспомогательный инструмент, с помощью которого можно принять правильное решение в сложной ситуации.

То, что эта стратегия бесхитростна, некоторые опытные трейдеры даже записывают в недостатки. Можно встретить советы использовать эту торговлю только во время обучения, при работе с демо-счётом, а для работы с реальными деньгами разрабатывать более сложные и более надёжные стратегии. Я, впрочем, могу поспорить с такими советчиками: эта стратегия не является для меня ключевой, но я достаточно часто пользуюсь ей и добиваюсь успехов. Главное — дождаться выраженного тренда и успеть заключить сделку, пока тренд будет действовать. Тогда стратегия принесёт успех.

Как же стратегии по тренду выглядят на практике?

Давайте посмотрим. Итак, я начинаю работу, в чём мне помогает мой брокер бинарных опционов. Проверяю самые различные активы из числа тех, с которыми постоянно работаю. Сначала не вижу ничего заслуживающего внимания, однако потом наблюдаю выраженный тренд! Вот график, показывающий стоимость евро относительно к канадскому доллару.

Выглядит заманчиво, но тренд нужно проверить, анализируя объективные данные. Как я уже писала выше, лучше всего это делать с помощью Живого графика бинарных опционов. Благодаря индикатору Линейной регрессии я могу видеть, что тренд действительно нисходящий, и свечи стабильно опускаются.

Да, здесь можно смело открывать сделку и надеяться на хорошую прибыль. Что я и делаю, открывая бинарный опцион на понижение на ближайшее указанное брокером время. Кстати, эта стратегия работает с любыми таймфреймами, но я предпочитаю выставлять достаточно долгий срок экспирации, желательно не менее получаса, а лучше 1 часа. Ставлю по 100 долларов…

… и получаю 77 долларов чистой прибыли! То есть 77 процентов: впечатляет, не так ли? А это далеко не предел!

Как видите, торговляможет оказаться очень прибыльной — если не зевать и вовремя отслеживать важные тенденции. Торговлю по тренду, за её несложность, очень любят мои клиенты, в особенности те, кто только начинает осваивать бинарные опционы. Впоследствии они обычно переходят к более сложным инструментам или же изобретают собственные, однако многие не забывают, какая стратегия стала началом их успеха, и продолжают с ней работать.

Напоминаю, что если вы хотите ознакомиться с другими стратегиями, которые я считаю действительно работающими, то в этом вам поможет мой материал «Стратегии торговли бинарными опционами». Обратите внимание и на другой текст: «Торговые системы для бинарных опционов (полный список)». Эта информация, собранная на одной странице, просто необходима тем, кто только начинает свой путь в трейдинге и хочет как можно быстрее войти в курс дела.

What is binary options trading?

Binary options trading is a relatively simple way of betting on whether or not a certain outcome will occur. The name ‘binary’ (meaning ‘two’) reflects the fact that you must choose from just two scenarios – yes or no.

In financial trading, this is typically whether the price of an asset will be lower or higher than a certain level at a pre-determined point in time.

The most common type of binary option is a digital option, sometimes broken down further into ‘up/down’ or ‘call/put’ options.

With a simple call/put option, if you think the price of the underlying asset will end at or above the strike price, you buy a ‘call’ option. If you think the price will be below the strike price at expiry, you purchase a ‘put’ option.

If you are correct, the option is ‘in the money’ and pays out a fixed amount of compensation.

This compensation is typically money but in some contracts can be a quantity of the underlying asset itself.

If you are wrong, it is ‘out of the money’ and you receive nothing.

Because of this, binary options are sometimes called ‘all-or-nothing options’.

The attractions of binary options trading

Because you have just two possible outcomes to consider, binary options trading is considered simpler than many other kinds of financial trading.

Typically, all you need to decide is in which direction you think the price of the underlying asset will move.

Unlike with other forms of financial trading where your potential profit or loss is determined also by the size of a price movement, it doesn’t matter to a binary options trader how far prices have moved above or below the agreed strike price when the option expires. With binary options, a winning trade always produces the same payout.

Because of this, you have a clear picture of your risk-to-reward ratio before you enter a trade.

This is in contrast to traditional options, where profits and losses can be limitless.

With binary options, therefore, you don’t have to sit at your trading terminal, anxiously watching prices – once you have made your trade, you don’t need to check in until the contract has expired. You also don’t have to worry about applying complicated risk management tools like stop losses.

Binary options are flexible, with brokers typically offering contracts for a wide variety of underlying assets – from foreign exchange or commodities to company shares or indices like the FTSE or S&P 500.

Contracts can also run for anything from 30 seconds to several months, depending on what your broker offers. This means you can tailor your trading to your own areas of expertise or trading style.

If you’re an experienced trader in other markets, such as foreign exchange or shares, you can apply some of the skills you have already developed.

Fundamental and technical analysis, for example, can both be used to help you form a view on future price movements.

The risks of binary options trading

With binary options, it is possible to lose all the money you have invested if none of your trades are successful.

Careful money management (see Lesson 6 https://learn.tradimo.com/lessons/1278) should however ensure that you do not wipe out your entire trading account.

An example trade

All or nothing call:

The current price of Uncle’s Apples shares is $10. If you think the price will go up and trade above $10 this time tomorrow, you can profit from this expectation by buying a one day binary call option.

Before buying the option you need to decide how much money you put on the trade. This will be your investment (your risk) and your payout will be a certain percentage of this amount. If the broker is offering a 50% payout, it means, if you win, you get your investment back plus 50% on top of it.

Let’s say you invest $20 in a one day Uncle’s Apples binary call option with a 50% payout. You come back same time tomorrow to see how your trade performed. You were right, the price is above $10 per share, that is, your option expired in the money. You get your $20 investement back plus 50%, that’s $10. So you get $30 altogether.

However, if Uncle’s Apples shares were below $10 when the contract expired, the contract becomes worthless. Then the option would be out of the money and you would lose your initial investment of $20.

Other types of binary option

With a ‘one touch option’, you predict that the price of the underlying asset will at some point during a defined contract period touch (reach or surpass) a certain level. If it does, you receive a payout. If it doesn’t, you receive nothing.

With a ‘no touch option’, you predict that a certain price will not be touched during the contract period, and are compensated if you are correct.

With a ‘double touch option’, you define two price levels and predict that at least one of them will be touched during the contract period. You receive a payout if this happens. If the price stays within the range of these two prices and touches neither, you receive nothing.

Note that the closing price at the end of the contract period is irrelevant with any kind of touch option. This makes them perfect for traders who believe that prices will be volatile but aren’t confident about predicting a sustained price move.

They are therefore particularly popular for trading volatile assets like foreign exchange and for very short-term trading with contract periods as short as one minute.

Summary

So far you have learned that:

  • binary options got their name from the fact that there are only two scenarios to consider: the market ends up either above or below your target price when the option expires
  • you get paid a set amount, typically a certain percentage of your investment if you are right or you lose your investment if you are wrong
  • it is because of these two reasons that binary options have gained a huge popularity in the last few years
  • brokers have created a variety of binary options contracts so you can take advantage of special market conditions, such as ranges, breakouts, tests of significant price levels and trending markets
Best Binary Options Brokers 2020:
  • BINARIUM
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  • BINOMO
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