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The Week Ahead 6 – 10 April
International news
The threat of a global recession becomes far more likely with current economic disruptions in the first quarter likely to continue into the second quarter of the year. The pandemic is rapidly spreading in the Euro Area and the US, shutting down the largest economies in the world. While there is some evidence that China is starting to get back to work, many of its trading partners have and will be disabled for the near term.
The US non-farm payroll numbers highlight the severe economic impact the pandemic is having. The data showed that the number of people employed in March 2020 had fallen by 700 000, far exceeding the consensus of estimates which predicted a contraction of 100 000 in the number of persons employed. The unemployment rate in the US has now moved from 3.5% in February to 4.4% in March as a result.
Date | Time | Region | Event | Previous |
6-Apr | All day | All | OPEC meetings | |
8-Apr | 11:30am | ZAR | Business Confidence Index | 92.7 |
9-Apr | 1:30pm | EUR | ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts | |
9-Apr | 2:30pm | USD | Unemployment Claims | 6648K |
10-Apr | 2:30pm | USD | CPI m/m | 0.10% |
10-Apr | USD | Core CPI m/m | 0.20% |
Local news
Moody’s Investor Relations has finally downgraded South Africa’s local currency debt to sub-investment grade (junk). The sub-investment grade rating aligns with major ratings agencies S&P Global and Fitch Solutions.
The Moody’s downgrade means that South African Government Bonds will be removed from the FTSE Russell’s World Government Bond Index (WGBI) as the WGBI cannot use speculative Bond Indices in its constituent weightings. This will result in net selling of SA bonds (estimated at around $10 billion). However, the FTSE Russell’s WGBI is delaying the reweighting of the index until the COVID-19 effects on liquidity and spreads start to dissipate.
For more information on the ratings downgrade and its effects on the rand click here.
Following on from South Africa’s ratings downgrade on Friday (27 March) to sub-investment grade (junk), by Moody’s Investor Relations, it comes as little surprise that Moody’s has now also downgraded the long-term local currency and foreign currency deposit ratings of South African banks, ABSA, FirstRand, Nedbank, Investec and Standard Bank. Fitch Solutions also lowered its already sub-investment grade rating on the banks one notch further as well.
South African banks’ ratings reflects Moody’s expectation that the weak economic environment will increase the downside risks for bank’s credit profiles.
For more information on South African banks and the trading opportunities they may be offering at present, click here.
The Rand
The rand is currently battling both domestic and external pressures. The growing Covid-19 pandemic has kept a risk off undertone and seen selling in emerging market currencies such as the rand, the Brazilian Real, Indian Rupee and Turkish Lira to name a few.
In terms of domestic pressures, the rand has seen a belated sell off after its local currency debt was downgraded to sub-investment / speculative status by Moody’s Investor Relations. Appetite for local bonds has waned, pushing yields higher and prices lower. The domestic catalyst for weakness in the ZAR is noted by the currency’s underperformance against other emerging market currencies which have been softer in the week as well.
The R20/$ becomes a very distinct possibility in the wake of global risk aversion and domestic economic woes which are exacerbated by the very necessary lockdown currently underway.
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Commodities
Oil prices have started to rebound late in the week, following news that the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have scheduled an emergency meeting for Monday the 6 th of April. The meeting will include non-OPEC members, most importantly Russia. Speculation is that major oil producers could be meeting to discuss supply cuts to end the current price war underway. There is also the suggestion that the US, UK, Canada and Mexico could be invited to the meeting as well. The news whether coincidence or not, follows coments from US president Donald Trump that massive production cuts could be nearing.
Companies
Nampak Limited: The disposal of Nampak Glass was effective as of midnight on 31 March 2020. The proceeds were received in cash on 31 March 2020.
Rebosis Property Fund Limited: announced that due to the impact of nationwide lockdown, the JSE has acceded to the firm’s request to release the company’s interim results in the last week of June 2020.
African Rainbow Minerals Limited: has received authorisation from the Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy to operate its load-out stations at Khumani and Beeshoek mines in order to continue loading iron ore from the mines’ respective stockpiles.
Vukile Property Fund Limited: has guided that even after taking into account the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Southern Africa and Spain, FY20 distributable EPS is still expected to remain within the guidance of 3.0% to 5.0% growth, when compared to the prior year.
Northam Platinum joins peers in declaring force majeure: Northam Platinum has declared force majeure on its supply of platinum group metals (PGMs) to its four customers and it is considering limited mining at its mechanised Booysendal operations.
Capital & Regional Plc: has guided that all seven of its community shopping centres currently remain open to provide essential services during the current nationwide lockdown. Approximately 23.0% of the group’s occupiers by contracted rent remain trading.
Trencor Limited: FY19 results, showed a loss per share of 263.00c, which compares with EPS of 1,610.00c in the prior year.
Impala Platinum Holdings Limited: has ramped down all South African mining operations and placed them on care and maintenance. The Group has applied for permission to conduct limited smelting operations at Impala Rustenburg together with limited operations at its Springs refinery.
Sanlam Limited: has guided that new business volumes increased by more than 30.0% in the first part of 2020.
The Week Ahead
National | The Week Ahead Apr 5, 2020
Monday Cabinet Office to release survey on consumer trends for March. Japan Automobile Dealers Association to release new motor vehicle sales data by brand for March. Chairman of Japan Business Federation to hold news conference. Economy, Trade and Industry Ministry to hear opinions from .
Reference | The Week Ahead Mar 16, 2020
Wednesday Finance Ministry to release preliminary customs-cleared trade statistics for February. Japan posted a trade deficit for three straight months through January due to the global economic slowdown. The February result could show a further slowing of exports amid the new coronavirus outbreak. Japan .
Reference | The Week Ahead Mar 1, 2020
Monday Upper House Budget Committee to start question-and-answer sessions over budget draft for fiscal 2020. Opposition parties are expected to grill Prime Minister Shinzo Abe over the government’s initial handling of the new coronavirus outbreak that has been expanding in Japan. Finance Ministry to .
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Reference | The Week Ahead Feb 23, 2020
Monday IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi to arrive for visit through Friday. Will hold meetings with Japanese officials and inspect crippled Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant. Japan Sumo Association to release latest rikishi rankings for Spring Grand Sumo Tournament starting March 8. Tuesday Agriculture, Forestry .
Reference | The Week Ahead Feb 16, 2020
Monday Cabinet Office to release preliminary gross domestic product data for October-December. Otsu District Court to hand down ruling over fatal accident in which car rammed into toddlers and killed two of them in Shiga Prefecture in May. Prosecutors to demand punishment for Satoshi .
Reference | The Week Ahead Feb 2, 2020
Monday Japan Automobile Dealers Association to release data on new motor vehicle sales in Japan for January. The Otsu District Court will hold the first hearing of a retrial in a case about the 2003 death of a hospital patient in which a former .
Reference | The Week Ahead Jan 26, 2020
Monday House of Representatives Budget Committee to hold question-and-answer sessions for two days on supplementary budget draft for fiscal 2020. Tuesday Business lobby Keidanren (Japan Business Federation) to hold two-day management-labor forum in Tokyo, effectively starting the annual spring wage talks. Representatives of the Japanese .
Reference | The Week Ahead Jan 19, 2020
Monday Diet to convene for 150-day regular session. BOJ to hold two-day monetary policy meeting. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki to begin three-day visit to Japan. Australian Open to start in Melbourne. From Japan, defending champion Naomi Osaka will be the women’s third seed. Tuesday .
Reference | The Week Ahead Jan 12, 2020
Monday Coming of Age Day national holiday. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to visit United Arab Emirates. Abe is calling for efforts to stabilize region amid simmering tensions between Iran and United States. Five-day tour began Saturday in Saudi Arabia and will also take him .
Reference | The Week Ahead Jan 5, 2020
Monday First working day of 2020 for most companies and government offices. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to visit Grand Shrines of Ise in Mie Prefecture, hold news conference. Tokyo Stock Exchange to hold first trading session of year after benchmark Nikkei average saw its .
Reference | The Week Ahead Dec 29, 2020
Monday Tokyo Stock Exchange to conduct year’s last trading session. The Nikkei average has added 19.1 percent since the start of 2020 and closed at 23,837.72 points on Friday, trading at its highest level in about 14 months. Annual Japan Record Awards to be .
Reference | The Week Ahead Dec 22, 2020
Monday Former Emperor Akihito to turn 86. The former emperor will mark his first birthday since he abdicated on April 30. He was succeeded by his eldest son, Emperor Naruhito, the following day. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to leave for three-day China visit. Abe .
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