Thursday’s Market Rout Is it 2008 All Over Again

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Escapism or China-bashing? US now left without harsh coronavirus options, but with broken healthcare & federal disarray

As of Wednesday, the US has a total of 6,496 confirmed coronavirus cases, including 112 deaths. While the numbers drag behind the worst-affected nations, such as Iran or Italy, the dynamics of the spread appears to be quite alarming – the state of New York alone reported 432 new cases in a single day.

As the disease spreads, the states are rushing to crack down on social contact, ordering closure of public venues and prohibiting mass events. The public, for its part, jumped on panic buying of everything it might possibly need to survive the crisis – like toilet paper and guns.

The federal government’s readiness – or lack thereof – for the outbreak, however, is the subject of heated debate. The refusal to use the WHO-developed coronavirus test kits by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) in particular has raised many questions over the US administration’s ability to deal with the pandemic.

Federal authorities in disarray, states on their own

Many deemed the Trump administration’s actions to be “delayed and disjointed and inefficient,” yet it would not be entirely fair to put all the blame on the incumbent administration, Professor of International Affairs at the University of Pittsburgh Michael Brenner believes. The healthcare system issues in the US are systemic, which further “exacerbates the situation and magnifies the consequences of the failure of the leadership.”

“The medical services, including the Centers for Disease Control, have been deprived of adequate financial recourses for years now, going back to the financial crisis of 2008. And in the past two years, they’ve had their budgets cut intentionally by the Trump administration,” Brenner told RT, adding that many Trump-appointed officials in the healthcare structures are “utterly incompetent.”

The whole macrostructure of the system is both a blessing and a curse in this situation, as the states are able at least to act on their own to try and stop the spread without waiting for the federal government to make any decisions.

“In the absence of some sort of simple direction, all of the local and state authorities will have to act themselves. And most of them have done a good job and they are the ones who have taken initiatives,” Brenner said, commending the actions of the states of Washington and New York.

This sort of federal structure can be pointed at as a complicating factor, but in this instance it turned out to be an advantage because they could do things that did not depend on non-existent directives from Washington.

Too late to close borders?

The US appears to be at least “partially prepared” for the crisis, Professor of Preventive Medicine and Infectious Diseases with the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, William Schaffner, believes.

“The big problem that we have had is the availability of testing and that has been much discussed. Only now are we making testing for coronavirus more widely available throughout the country. That has held us back very substantially,” Schaffner told RT.

Restricting travel from China, for instance, was the right move on the part of the US government, he believes. Using this option again as the hotspot of the virus has seemingly shifted to Europe, however, might not be as useful.

The virus now is so widely distributed in the US and is being spread that closing the borders to Europe now is not very advantageous. It does not provide a major benefit but causes a great deal of social and economic disruption.

Chinese-style crackdown on virus impossible – thanks to MSM & Trump

The state-level attempts to limit social contact are likely the farthest the US will go in trying to stop the outbreak, and it certainly won’t adopt harsh China-like – or, at least, Italy-like – lockdown measures, the experts agree.

“Here in the United states it would be difficult to go much further. And the closures of all the bars and schools etc. are already very, very forceful interventions to support the concept of social distancing,” Schaffner said.

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While any nationwide lockdowns would require the federal government to pass new laws, the adoption of Chinese-style measures is even theoretically impossible now, given how much effort was spent by the US mainstream media to bash Beijing for being “authoritarian,” Brenner noted. The repeated downplaying of the Covid-19 threat by President Donald Trump has also made the public even less ready for any harsh measures.

“Another unfortunate feature of this is the wave of stories going back, which are condemning China for not acting swiftly enough, condemning China for this and that. The New York Times especially runs the campaign releasing strongly negative stories about China every day. And this has been going on since well before the virus. And now when they’ve got control over it, the emphasis is on China using ‘totalitarian’ means,” Brenner said. “The point of these stories is not to inform, it’s to denigrate China. Of course, this is pathological, because it doesn’t give the US any kind of advantage. It’s escapism, it’s avoidance.”

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Markets Routed Again Over China Economy Fears

U.S. Stocks Again Plummet Over China Economy Fears

Breaking News Emails

Uncertainty about how quickly China’s economy is weakening continued to hammer U.S. stock markets on Thursday, sending the Dow Jones industrial average down 392 points — or 2.3 percent of its total value — for its biggest loss in three months.

Reuters reported that the Dow’s 5.2 percent decline in the first four trading days was its worst performance to begin a year since the 30-stock index’s creation in 1928.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index and the Nasdaq composite also were creamed, with the former losing 47 points, or 2.4 percent, and the latter sliding 146 points, or 3 percent.

The Dow and Nasdaq ended the day more than 10 percent below their 52-week intraday highs, officially entering what economists consider a market “correction.” The S&P 500 was just short of the threshold, about 9 percent away from its 52-week high.

Thursday’s battering of the markets followed a similar pounding on Wednesday and was the third negative trading session out of four in the new year. Technology stocks have been some of the hardest hit. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite has plunged 8 percent since Dec. 29.

Markets around the world were spooked by a steep drop in Chinese stocks. The superpower had to halt trading earlier Thursday when losses plummeted 7 percent. The 29-minute session was the shortest trading day ever in the CSI 300 Index’s 25-year history.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission later suspended its so-called circuit breaker system, which suspends trading for 15 minutes in the event of a 5 percent selloff and halts it for the day if it reaches 7 percent, as happened Thursday. The move appeared to be an acknowledgement that the newly rolled out system was exacerbating panic selling.

The selloff in China was sparked by reports that indicate slower growth for the world’s second-largest economy and by Beijing allowing the country’s currency, the yuan, to take its biggest fall in five months to reach its lowest level against the dollar since March 2020.

After registering big declines in early trading in reaction to the Chinese trading halt and steep declines in European markets, U.S. markets stabilized in early afternoon only to be hammered by a Reuters report citing sources as saying that China’s central bank is under increasing pressure from policy advisers to let the yuan currency fall quickly and sharply, by as much as 10-15 percent.

With Beijing accelerating the yuan’s depreciation to make its exports more competitive, investors fear China’s economy is even weaker than had been imagined.

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Implications for the global economy

The health of China’s economy has big implications for countries all around the world even though the U.S. economy is doing fairly well and Europe’s economy looks healthier. But the opacity of Bejing’s plans for its currency and stimulating its slowing economy add to the uncertainty of markets around the world.

“China’s been such a big driver of global growth for 15 years and now they’re not, and they don’t seem to have a plan for the next 15 years,” John Canally, chief economic strategist at LPL Financial, told the Associated Press. Canally says investors don’t know if the Chinese government is doing a good job of managing the nation’s economy. To make matters worse, he said, the markets don’t have many facts to go on.

Jim Cramer: China is ‘winging it,’ ‘the rest of the world is suffering’

Canally said investors don’t have many reliable measurements of China’s service sector as opposed to its manufacturing sector, which has been the core of its economy for years. He said investors might feel better in February or March, when the government could disclose more details about its economic goals and plans.

Adding to the gloom, oil slid below $33 a barrel to near 12-year lows before regaining some ground. Still, oil prices are down about 70 percent since mid-2020.

Not all the skittishness is attributable to action on the far side of the Pacific. Investors also are concerned about the pace at which the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates this year.

Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker set a hawkish tone on Thursday, saying the central bank may need to raise interest rates more than four times this year if oil prices stabilize, the dollar stops appreciating and inflation surges toward the U.S. central bank’s 2 percent target.

However, fed funds futures contracts show that traders expect the Fed to raise rates at least twice in 2020, and are reducing bets on a third hike by December.

Billionaire investor George Soros, speaking at an economic forum in Sri Lanka, drew similarities between the present environment and the financial crash of 2008. He said global markets are facing a crisis and investors need to be very cautious, Bloomberg reported.

The year on Wall Street began Monday with a furious market selloff, and the Dow ultimately dropped more than 250 points, or 1.47 percent, by Wednesday’s closing bell. It marked the worst beginning to a trading year since Jan. 2, 2008, when the Dow fell 1.66 percent.

Major international news also has been testing the markets this week, from the Saudi Arabia-Iran diplomatic conflict to North Korea’s testing of an apparent nuclear device.

On Thursday, China’s Shanghai composite closed 7.32 percent lower, while the Shenzen composite closed 8.11 percent lower. In Japan, the Nikkei finished 2.33 percent lower, CNBC reported.

European markets were equally roiled: The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index and the euro zone’s blue-chip Euro STOXX index were both down 2 percent.

Meanwhile, U.S. investors will be eyeing Friday’s employment report from the Labor Department. Early indications are that the report will be positive, based on reports Thursday showing weekly jobless claims dropping sharply in late December and the lowest number of layoffs in 15-1/2 years.

CNBC’s Eveyln Cheng, the Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.

Erik Ortiz is a staff writer for NBC News focusing on racial injustice and social inequality.

Starlight 10, Module 1 FOCUS ON RNE

На этой странице находятся все задания с полными, готовыми решениями из учебника Starlight 10, Module 1 FOCUS ON RNE.

Reading – Part 2 Read the text and choose the correct parts of sentences (A-G) to complete gaps 1-6.There is one extra part of a sentence you do not need to use. Write your answers in the table.
Прочитать текст, вставить в пропуски предложения, данные под текстом.

Moscow Marathon

The procession winds its way through Moscow. Leading the way are smiling, waving women dressed in uniforms 1)___. Next comes a full military orchestra, in step and playing loudly. After them are the runners, several thousand of them, representing the four corners of the globe. I am among them, and I simply cannot believe that I am a participant in this awe-inspiring event.

We stop at Red Square in front of the cathedral of St Basil, one of the most beautiful buildings on Earth. The bells on the Spassky Tower of the Kremlin strike 11 times, and the Deputy Mayor of Moscow shouts out the signal 2)___.

I am running the Moscow Marathon! I repeat these words silently to myself like a mantra. As I quickly look around me, I see that most of my fellow runners are Russian. They are not wearing fancy sun-glasses or namebrand shorts, 3)___. What is more, they look incredibly determined to not only complete the course, but to win it. I realise I have my work cut out for me.

The Moscow Marathon course is surely among the most scenic on the planet. It runs through the heart of Moscow, along the Moscow River, 4)___. Along the route are palaces, cathedrals, churches with shining gold cupolas, well-kept parks, sparkling fountains and stately monuments. The wide avenues and boulevards are spotlessly clean 5)___. From almost anywhere along the course, the seven huge neo-Gothic skyscrapers built by Stalin can be seen.

Before I know it, the finish line comes into view. The last quarter mile! I am nowhere near the front of the pack, but I can hear the boisterous applause ahead 6)___. I feel no sense of defeat. I came to this historic city to compete, to complete the Moscow Marathon. In a few minutes I will have done what I had set out to do. And with the little breath that I have left, all I can say is that it is the greatest feeling in the world.

A. but they still look like professionals.
В. and lined with busy shops, restaurants, and cafés.
С. which are similar to those worn by the proud soldiers of the Napoleonic Wars.
D. as the first few lead runners cross the finish line.
E. and I wonder whether I can complete the run.
F. that starts us off on our gruelling 26.2-mile race through the streets of the ancient city.
G. passing the ancient walls of the Kremlin.

Moscow Marathon
Московский марафон

The procession winds its way through Moscow. Leading the way are smiling, waving women dressed in uniforms which are similar to those worn by the proud soldiers of the Napoleonic Wars.. Next comes a full military orchestra, in step and playing loudly. After them are the runners, several thousand of them, representing the four corners of the globe. I am among them, and I simply cannot believe that I am a participant in this awe-inspiring event.

Процессия охватывает улицы Москвы (дословно: процессия обвивает свой путь сквозь Москву). Идущие впереди – это улыбающиеся, машущие женщины, одетые в форму, которая похожа на ту, которую носили гордые солдаты во время войны с Наполеоном. Следующим в такт идет полный военный оркестр и играет громкую музыку. После них идут бегуны, несколько тысяч, представляя пять уголков земного шара. Я среди них, и я просто не могу поверить, что я участник этого захватывающего дух события.

We stop at Red Square in front of the cathedral of St Basil, one of the most beautiful buildings on Earth. The bells on the Spassky Tower of the Kremlin strike 11 times, and the Deputy Mayor of Moscow shouts out the signal that starts us off on our gruelling 26.2-mile race through the streets of the ancient city..

I am running the Moscow Marathon! I repeat these words silently to myself like a mantra. As I quickly look around me, I see that most of my fellow runners are Russian. They are not wearing fancy sun-glasses or namebrand shorts, but they still look like professionals.. What is more, they look incredibly determined to not only complete the course, but to win it. I realise I have my work cut out for me.

Я бегу московский марафон! Я тихо повторяю про себя эти слова,словно мантру. Когда я быстро осматриваюсь, я вижу, что большинство товарищей – из России. Они не носят причудливых солнечных очков или брендовых шорт, но все они выглядят, как профессионалы Более того, они выглядят невероятно решительными не только пробежать всю дистанцию, но и выиграть. Я понимаю, что это задача по мне.

The Moscow Marathon course is surely among the most scenic on the planet. It runs through the heart of Moscow, along the Moscow River, passing the ancient walls of the Kremlin.. Along the route are palaces, cathedrals, churches with shining gold cupolas, well-kept parks, sparkling fountains and stately monuments. The wide avenues and boulevards are spotlessly clean and lined with busy shops, restaurants, and cafés.. From almost anywhere along the course, the seven huge neo-Gothic skyscrapers built by Stalin can be seen.

Московский марафон – это, безусловно, одно из самых зрелищных событий на планете. Он проходит по центру Москвы, вдоль Москвы-реки, проходя мимо древних стен Кремля. На его пути находятся дворцы, соборы, церкви с блестящими золотыми куполами, ухоженные парки, брызгающие фонтаны и величественные памятники. Широкие улицы и бульвары безупречно чисты и усеяны магазинами, ресторанами и кафе. На всем пути почти отовсюду можно видеть семь огромных нео-готических небоскребов, построенных Сталиным.

Before I know it, the finish line comes into view. The last quarter mile! I am nowhere near the front of the pack, but I can hear the boisterous applause ahead as the first few lead runners cross the finish line.. I feel no sense of defeat. I came to this historic city to compete, to complete the Moscow Marathon. In a few minutes I will have done what I had set out to do. And with the little breath that I have left, all I can say is that it is the greatest feeling in the world.

Я и не заметил, как в поле зрения показалась финишная линия. Последняя четверть мили! Я совершенно далек от толпы, но я могу слышать бурные аплодисменты впереди, когда первые лидирующие бегуны пересекают финишную линию. Я не чувствую поражения. Я приехал в этот исторический город, чтобы состязаться, пройти всю дистанцию московского марафона. Через несколько минут я сделаю то, что наметил для себя. И, испытывая нехватку воздуха, все, что я могу сказать, – это величайшее чувство в мире.

Use of English – Part 1 Read the text and complete gaps 1-7 with the correct form and tense of each verb in capitals.
Поставить глаголы в правильное время.

The Walk

Natalie raised her face to the warm spring sun and took a deep breath. How wonderful it was, she 1) __THINK__ to be out in the fresh air again after a long, cold winter.
“Come on, hurry up, or we 2) __BE__ late for lunch!” Leo said as he walked along the forest path ahead of her.
They 3) __WALK__ through the woods all morning and Leo was beginning to get hungry after all the exercise.
“We’ve got plenty of time,” replied Natalie cheerfully,“and I 4) __ NOT WANT__ to go home yet. It’s so lovely here,” she added.
Leo 5)__SURPRISE__ by her enthusiasm. Natalie hadn’t been very keen to come walking when he first suggested it.
“You are funny,” he said.“Where 6) __ GET__ (you) so much energy from all of a sudden?”
“Oh, I’m not sure,” Natalie said, 7) __LAUGH__ happily, “but perhaps the fresh spring air and the good company might have something to do with it.”

The Walk

Natalie raised her face to the warm spring sun and took a deep breath. How wonderful it was, she THOUGHT to be out in the fresh air again after a long, cold winter.
“Come on, hurry up, or we WILL BE late for lunch!” Leo said as he walked along the forest path ahead of her.
They HAD BEEN WALKING through the woods all morning and Leo was beginning to get hungry after all the exercise.
“We’ve got plenty of time,” replied Natalie cheerfully,“and I DON’T WANT to go home yet. It’s so lovely here,” she added.
Leo WAS SURPRISED by her enthusiasm. Natalie hadn’t been very keen to come walking when he first suggested it.
“You are funny,” he said.“Where DID YOU GET so much energy from all of a sudden?”
“Oh, I’m not sure,” Natalie said, LAUGHING happily, “but perhaps the fresh spring air and the good company might have something to do with it.”

Прогулка

Натали подняла лицо к теплому весеннему солнцу и сделала глубокий вздох. Каким же чудом было, подумала она, оказаться вновь на свежем воздухе после долгой, холодной зимы.
“Давай, поторопись, а то мы опоздаем на обед!” – сказал Лео, идя по лесной дорожке спереди.
Они гуляли по лесу все утро, и Лео начинал чувствовать голод после такой нагрузки (дословно: после всех таких упражнений).
“У нас много времени”, – радостно ответила Натали. – “И я пока еще не хочу идти домой. Здесь так мило”, – добавила она.
Лео был удивлен ее энтузиазму. Натали не очень-то и хотела идти на прогулку, когда он первый раз предложил ей это.
“Забавная ты”, – сказал он. “Откуда у тебя так внезапно столько энергии?”
“О, я не знаю (дословно: я не уверена)”, – сказала Натали, счастливо улыбаясь. “Но, может быть, свежий весенний воздух и хорошая компания имеют какое-то отношение к этому”.

Use of English – Part 2 Read the text and complete gaps 1-6 with the correct derivative of each word in capitals.
Преобразуйте слова так, чтобы они подходили в контекст.

Unusual Restaurants

All over the world there are restaurants for people who are looking for dinner with a 1) __DIFFERENT__ Dubai may be hot, but diners need to dress up very 2) __WARM__ for a meal at the Chillout restaurant, where everything is made of ice. Other ice restaurants can be found in Finland, Canada and Russia.

In the Canary Islands, the El Diablo Restaurant uses 3) __VOLCANO__ heat to cook the meals. Situated on the volcano itself, the 4) __CIRCLE__ restaurant has glass walls, providing breathtaking views of the moon-like landscape and the sea beyond.

The Ithaa Restaurant in the Maldives is 5 metres below the Indian Ocean. The curved, transparent walls give diners an amazing view of the 5) __SURROUND__ coral reef. There is a covered staircase leading down to the restaurant so diners remain 6) __COMPLETE__ dry.

Unusual Restaurants

All over the world there are restaurants for people who are looking for dinner with a DIFFERENCE.

Dubai may be hot, but diners need to dress up very WARMLY for a meal at the Chillout restaurant, where everything is made of ice. Other ice restaurants can be found in Finland, Canada and Russia.

In the Canary Islands, the El Diablo Restaurant uses VOLCANIC heat to cook the meals. Situated on the volcano itself, the CIRCULAR restaurant has glass walls, providing breathtaking views of the moon-like landscape and the sea beyond.

The Ithaa Restaurant in the Maldives is 5 metres below the Indian Ocean. The curved, transparent walls give diners an amazing view of the SURROUNDING coral reef. There is a covered staircase leading down to the restaurant so diners remain COMPLETELY dry.

Необычные рестораны

По всему миру есть рестораны для людей, стремящихся пообедать необычно.

В Дубаи может быть жарко, но, чтобы поесть в ресторане “Chillout”, где все сделано изо льда, люди должны одеваться очень тепло. Еще ледяные рестораны можно найти в Финляндии, Канаде и России.

На Канарских островах ресторан “El Diablo” использует вулканическое тепло, чтобы приготовить еду. Сам по себе расположенный на вулкане, движущийся по кругу ресторан имеет стеклянные стены, обеспечивающие захватывающий вид освещенного луной ландшафта и лежащего за ним моря.

Ресторан “Ithaa” на Мальдивских островах находится на уровне пяти метров под Индийским океаном. Изогнутые прозрачные стены дают посетителям удивительный вид окружающего кораллового рифа. Есть также закрытая лестничная клетка, ведущая в ресторан, так что посетители остаются совершенно сухими.

Part 3 Read the text. For gaps 1-7, choose А, В, С or D to complete each gap correctly.
Прочитать текст и вставить в каждый пропуск (1-7) нужный вариант ответа (А, В, С или D).

Moscow hosts unique Winter Sports events

In February 2008, 25.000 spectators attended a Snowboard World Cup event at Moscow State University. The youngest competitor, 15-year-old Roope Tonteri from Finland, 1)___ the finals and finished second. The event was made possible because a special ramp, 46 metres high, was built.

In January 2009, Russia again showed its support 2)___ winter sports. In the Vorobyevy Hills, in central Moscow, a giant purpose-built ski ramp was constructed for the International Ski Federation (FIS) World Cup Race. It was so large that it entered the Guinness Book of Records.

The FIS had been encouraged by the 3)___ of the 2008 snowboarding event to hold an Alpine event in Moscow. Ironically, at the time of the event, it was the warmest winter 4)___ in Moscow, and snow had to be brought in from Siberia. The snow was transported to Moscow in refrigerated train carriages.

More than 20,000 people watched the 2009 event in Moscow. Sixteen top international competitors from 10 countries 5)___ part in the parallel slalom race, including two Russian athletes. After the competition the athletes visited Sochi. They were shown the 6)___ of the 2020 Olympic Winter Games and went skiing with the Russian Prime Minister.

These events in Moscow clearly demonstrated to the world Russia’s readiness to 7)___ winter sports events in the future.

1) A. achieved B. arrived C. reached D. competed
2) A. to B. for C. at D. with
3) A. success B. victory C. feat D. triumph
4) A. never B. ever C. still D. yet
5) A. put B. did C. got D. took
6) A. position B. place C. area D. site
7) A. play B. act C. stage D. perform

Moscow hosts unique Winter Sports events

In February 2008, 25.000 spectators attended a Snowboard World Cup event at Moscow State University. The youngest competitor, 15-year-old Roope Tonteri from Finland, reached the finals and finished second. The event was made possible because a special ramp, 46 metres high, was built.

In January 2009, Russia again showed its support for winter sports. In the Vorobyevy Hills, in central Moscow, a giant purpose-built ski ramp was constructed for the International Ski Federation (FIS) World Cup Race. It was so large that it entered the Guinness Book of Records.

The FIS had been encouraged by the success of the 2008 snowboarding event to hold an Alpine event in Moscow. Ironically, at the time of the event, it was the warmest winter ever in Moscow, and snow had to be brought in from Siberia. The snow was transported to Moscow in refrigerated train carriages.

More than 20,000 people watched the 2009 event in Moscow. Sixteen top international competitors from 10 countries took part in the parallel slalom race, including two Russian athletes. After the competition the athletes visited Sochi. They were shown the site of the 2020 Olympic Winter Games and went skiing with the Russian Prime Minister.

These events in Moscow clearly demonstrated to the world Russia’s readiness to stage winter sports events in the future.

Москва принимает уникальные зимние спортивные события

В феврале 2008 года 25 тыс. зрителей посетили чемпионат мира по катанию на сноуборде в Московском государственном университете. Самый молодой участник соревнований, 15-летний Руп Тонтери из Финляндии, попа в финал и занял втрое место. Это событие стало возможным благодаря особой наклонной установке высотой в 46 метров.

В январе 2009 года Россия вновь проявила поддержку зимним видам спорта. а Воробьевых Горах в центре Москвы была построена специальная гигантская лыжная установка для чемпионата мира, проводимого международной горнолыжной федерацией. Она была такой большой, что попала в Книгу Рекордов Гиннесса.

Для проведения в Москве чемпионата по горным лыжам Международную горнолыжную федерацию вдохновил успех чемпионата по катанию на сноуборде, который был проведен в 2008 году. По иронии судьбы во время проведения нового чемпионата в Москве стояла самая теплая зима, и снег пришлось доставлять из Сибири. Снег транспортировали в вагонах-рефрижераторах.

Более 20 тыс. людей увидели чемпионат в Москве 2009 года. Шестнадцать лучших участников международного класса из 10 стран приняли участие в параллельном слаломе, включая двух Российских спортсменов. После соревнования эти атлеты посетили Сочи. Им показали место Зимних Олимпийских Игр 2020 года, и они прокатились на лыжах с Российским премьер-министром.

Эти события в Москве ясно продемонстрировали миру готовность России устраивать зимние спортивные события в будущем.

Gold investors betting it’s 2008 all over again

GOLD’S haven reputation took a serious beating, with prices tumbling as investors sought to free up cash amid a broad and devastating market rout.

Sure, it’s the story of gold for much of this month. But that’s only half the answer. It’s also a scenario that played out in the depths of the 2008 global financial crisis, right before gold started a long rally that culminated in the 2020 price record still in place today.

For many analysts and investors, the parallels with 2008 suggest there’s a good chance that gold will bounce back strongly after this month’s pummelling.

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“If its price trajectory proves similar to 2008, we could see the precious metal’s benefits resurging as market stress continues to assert itself,” said Catherine Doyle, an investment specialist in the real-return team at Newton Investment Management. “We continue to have significant exposure for this very reason.”

Spot gold rose 1.4 per cent on Tuesday, after the Federal Reserve announced a massive second wave of initiatives to support a shuttered US economy. Prices have still dropped about 7.5 per cent from a peak on March 9, amid wild price swings. In late 2008, gold lost more than 20 per cent over a month to bottom out near US$700 in November, before haven buying returned.

While there’s concern that the impact on the global economy from the coronavirus could be worse than the last global financial crisis, many also expect a bigger policy response.

Another similarity with 2008 is that, while gold has fallen in recent weeks, the drop has been far outpaced by declines in equity markets and other commodities, so its relative purchasing power has risen, said Matthew McLennan, head of the global value team at First Eagle Investment Management, which manages about US$101 billion in assets. “When the Fed progressively removes liquidity fears, provides forward guidance on rates, and when it possibly even controls the yield curve, and the economic softening is observable across the whole economy, the potential hedge value of gold can reassert itself powerfully,” he said.

And while inflation expectations are plunging, fiscal authorities are likely to act aggressively, Mr McLennan said. “The world at large has little appetite for deflation,” he added.

Central banks from the Asia Pacific to Europe have already pledged to spend billions of dollars and implemented new policy steps. The US has drawn up plans for a US$2 trillion stimulus, although the process stumbled after Senate Democrats voted to reject the latest version of the legislation.

Still, gold may have further to fall before it’s ready to rebound, assuming macro markets follow the playbook from the global financial crisis, Citigroup Inc analysts said in a report on Monday. They see the potential for the metal to touch fresh nominal highs above US$2,000 an ounce in 2021.

“But for now, many market participants may be repeating the mantra of ‘cash is king,’ and in particular the King Dollar.” BLOOMBERG

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