When NOT to Trade

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Traders’ Tips from TASC Magazine

When and When not to Trade

Jongseon Kim’s, “When and When not to Trade” he presents a trading system based on the TRIX indicator. This indicator is built into MetaStock and does not need to be defined in a custom formula. The formulas that follow create an exploration, and a system test based on his conditions.

To create this exploration, in MetaStock, go to Tools and select the Explorer. Click New and enter a name (“TRIX system”). Then enter the following formulas in the corresponding tabs:

To create the system test, in MetaStock, go to Tools and select System Tester. Click New and enter a name (“TRIX system”). Under the corresponding tabs, enter the following formulas:

Using the 4 conditions defined, it is also possible to create an expert advisor. Below is a chart with such an expert attached.

To create this expert, in MetaStock, go to Tools and select Expert Advisor. Click New and enter a name (“TRIX system”). Select the symbols tab and click New. Enter the name of the symbol. Then enter the formula. Click the Graphic tab and select the desire symbol, the color you would like it displayed it and the text to be displayed. On this screen, you also specify the location of the symbol and the text in relation to the price bars. Below are the formulas and the selections used in the example expert:

Name: Gold Cross

tx:=TRIX(5);
sig:=Mov(tx,3,E);
Cross(tx,sig)
Graphic:Buy Arrow
Size:Medium
Color:Dk Yellow
Label:GC
Symbol position:below price
Label position:below symbol

Name: Dead Cross

tx:=TRIX(5);
sig:=Mov(tx,3,E);
Cross(sig,tx)
Graphic:Sell Arrow
Size:Medium
Color:Dk Red
Label:DC
Symbol position:above price
Label position:above symbol

tx:=TRIX(5);
Cross(ROC(tx,1,$),0)
Graphic:Exit Sign
Size:Medium
Color:Blue
Label:B
Symbol position:above price
Label position:above symbol

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tx:=TRIX(5);
Cross(0,ROC(tx,1,$))
Graphic:Exit Sign
Size:Medium
Color:Dk Green
Label:F
Symbol position:below price
Label position:below symbol

When NOT to trade

Guest post by Yohay Elam of Forex Crunch. There are many articles on the web about the best times for

Guest post by Yohay Elam of Forex Crunch.

There are many articles on the web about the best times for forex trading. While there are better hours than others, the temptation to trade is always strong. Here aare 4 cases in which trading is NOT recommended.

1. Non-Farm Payrolls: I guess that this one is quite obvious. During big economic releases, with NFP being the king of forex, currency pairs go and down quite sharply for a few hours. You can never know if they reached the top of the wild range, and if it’ll swing back down, or the other way around. It can jump out of the wide ranges unexpectedly. It can also swing in an extreme manner, only to throw you out of your position.

2. Timothy Geithner: The American secretary of Treasury slips more than once. He once said that he doesn’t object abandoning the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, only to “clarify” his words a few minutes later. During this time, the dollar plunged, only to return to normal trading after Geithner clarified his position. Geithner is not alone: other public figures tend to say something they didn’t mean to, possibly throwing you out of a trade.

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3. Monday’s Asian session: While Europeans are asleep and Americans are still enjoying their sunny afternoons, trading begins in the eastern side of the globe. The volume is very small – something that can cause sharp and unexpeted moves. Occasionally, a weekend gap is possible. Mind the gap! The London session usually “fixes” it eventually, but in the meantime, you’re out in the dark.

4. Friday Effect: I’m talking about the time that Non-Farm Payrolls are released, 12:30 GMT. Also an hour and a half later, data is released, and the market still behaves rather normally. I’m talking of later hours, around 16:00 GMT. Contrary to Monday’s Asian session, the problem here isn’t the volume. Despite significant volume, the market can go wild. Many traders seek to close their positions before the weekend, in order to avoud unwanted worries. Sometimes, this will to close positions takes a specific direction, and erases steady moves. Yet again, the “Friday effect” doesn’t happen every Friday, making it another unexpected phenomenon that you’d prefer to avoid.

These are the 4 major scenrios in which trading isn’t recommended. Do you have an experience to share? Please comment.

You can read a bit more about this topic as written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist, DailyFX.

The 3 Worst Times to Trade Forex (And When to Trade Instead)

Everyone wants to know where to buy or sell a particular market.

Is the 1.1800 area primed for a short or should you wait for 1.1900?

But the truth is, trading is as much about knowing when not to trade as it is knowing where to enter a position.

That may sound like the same thing at first, but I assure you it isn’t.

For instance, the EURUSD may have formed the perfect bearish pin bar at resistance, but if it occurs right before an ECB rate decision, it isn’t the right time to trade.

The location of the signal was spot on, but the timing was off.

Before I scare you off with yet another factor you need to consider, let me tell you that it isn’t all that difficult. In this post I’m going to share three times when sitting on the sideline may be the wise choice, as well as which are my favorite days to trade.

Get Instant Access to the Same “New York Close” Forex Charts Used by Justin Bennett!

I’ll also share a few questions to ask yourself to make sure your mental game is on point.

Read on to learn the best and worst times to trade Forex.

1. Immediately Before or After High-Impact News

As traders, volatility is what makes us money. You can’t profit from a market that never moves.

We’ve all been in one of those positions that takes off almost immediately in our favor and doesn’t want to stop. And after two days of traveling 300 pips, we’re left with a boatload of cash.

Those are good weeks. But they can also be incredibly dangerous, especially for the novice trader.

You witness how an increase in volatility can produce profits out of thin air.

On the surface it all seems quite innocent. After all, what’s wrong with observing that higher volatility equals greater profits?

Ah, now you see where I’m going with this. You know that news, particularly high-impact events like rate decisions and non-farm payroll, trigger volatile conditions.

If you have attempted trading events like these, you know how dangerous it can be. Yes, volatility can make us money, but attempting to trade an event that has a random outcome and market response isn’t the way to go about it.

It also goes against what we do as price action traders. Our trading edge comes from signals the market generates on the higher time frames, namely the daily charts.

There’s no edge in trading the news. That goes for entering a position immediately before or after an event.

Even if the market behaves and moves in your favor, you’ll likely be stopped out before you can realize any profit.

So what’s the solution?

Wait for the session to close at 5 pm EST before making any further considerations.

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That’s it! I call this the settlement period, and it occurs each and every trading day between 4 pm and 5 pm EST.

And if you are trading the 4-hour chart, wait for the next 4-hour candle to close before even thinking of committing any capital.

The simple act of waiting for the next daily or 4-hour candle to close has kept me out of more dangerous situations than I can count.

Notice that I said simple and not easy.

There’s nothing complicated about waiting for a candle to close. Anyone can understand the concept.

The difficult part is having the patience and discipline to actually wait.

Know that just because the market is moving, it doesn’t mean you have to trade it. The little-known truth is that 99% of the volatility you see every single day is just a trap waiting for the unsuspecting trader.

Quality setups don’t come around often, but when they do, you have to be ready. If you’re chasing volatility every day, you won’t be ready.

2. The First and Last Day of the Week

The first 24 hours of each new trading week is usually relatively slow. Market participants are just getting back online after their 48-hour hiatus.

It’s also when the markets are figuring out which direction they should head for the coming week.

With this in mind, I tend to stay on the sideline each Monday—unless I already have an established position from previous weeks, of course.

On the other end of the spectrum, we have Fridays.

The final 24 hours of the trading week is often marked by lower liquidity. As you may well know, technical analysis works better in highly liquid markets. That’s one reason I switched from equities to Forex back in 2007.

Moreover, I don’t like taking on new risk before the weekend. The Forex market can sometimes gap quite aggressively at the week’s open, and I don’t want to get caught on the wrong side of a Monday gap.

Between these two days, Friday is the worst offender in my opinion. The idea of opening a new position in front of a 48-hour window where I’m helpless to do anything but watch doesn’t sit well with me.

So there you have it, Mondays and Fridays are the two worst days to trade, with the latter being even worse than the former.

By the process of elimination, you can see that I like to open new positions between Tuesday and Thursday. I’ve found that the best setups occur during these three days.

By this time, market participants have settled in for the week. It’s also far enough from the weekend to cut your losses if the market moves against you.

To wrap up, here’s how I approach this…

Any quality setup that occurs between Tuesday and Thursday is fair game.

I will sometimes trade on Monday, but the setup has to be top notch. It needs to be so good that I would have to be crazy to pass it up.

Fridays are off limits in my book. You’re better off waiting until Monday to reassess the situation. That way you don’t need to worry about the market gapping against your position at the start of the new week.

3. When You Aren’t in the Right Mental State

Trading is a game of mental discipline. Those who can keep their emotions under control come out ahead.

We know what happens to those who can’t.

But no matter how disciplined and controlled you become, there will always be ‘those days’. I’m sure you know the ones I’m referring to here.

Maybe you aren’t feeling well or didn’t get a good night’s sleep. It could also be that you’re busy with other tasks which means your thoughts are elsewhere for the day.

Another dangerous scenario would be a losing streak. If you have lost the last three or four trades, chances are your emotions are on high alert.

Whatever the case, if you aren’t feeling up to the task of trading, then don’t!

There’s no rule that says you must trade today. Even if there is an A+ setup sitting right in front of you, some time away from your charts may not be a bad idea. In fact, it usually helps immensely if you aren’t feeling up to the task.

And if you’ve experienced a losing streak, one of the best things you can do is to take a break. Once you come back, try risking half of your normal position size until your confidence returns.

Final Words

Knowing when to trade, and when not to, is critical as a trader. It will help keep your capital safe when conditions are volatile or markets are illiquid and capitalize when the time is right.

One of the worst times for placing trades is immediately before or after high-impact news. These events range from central bank rate decisions to non-farm payroll.

By waiting for the session to close at 5 pm EST, you avoid the ‘chop’ that often occurs around these events. I would estimate that 90% of the setups I take occur on the daily time frame. The rest happen on the 4-hour chart.

Another time to avoid is the first and last day of the week, with Friday being the worst offender of the two. Taking on risk ahead of the weekend can be a risky endeavor. As for Monday, markets can be indecisive as traders recover from the weekend lull.

Trading is a mental game. I would argue that it’s 80% mindset and 20% mechanical. So if you aren’t feeling at the top of your game, take a seat on the sideline. It’s better to miss a setup or two than to risk a costly emotional meltdown.

I have found that Tuesday through Thursday are the best days to trade. Just remember to not enter a position immediately before or after high-impact news. And last but not least, make sure your mental game is on point before risking any capital.

Your Turn

When do you think is the worst time to trade the Forex market?

Leave your comment or question below and I will respond shortly.

Leave a Comment:

72 comments

Awesome post Justin! You just addressed the elephant in the ‘Trading room’!! ��

For me it’s not an opinion but a complement. Thank you for yet another good lesson. But I have to agree with you, I have seen the market being tired on Monday and Friday. I blew my account on high-impact news on few ocassion before, so I don’t want anything to do with it.

Nice note, Thanks…..

This will be very helpful to beginners like me. Thanks a lot.��

Dear sir,thank you so much for your educational materials,I find to be very helpful and very encouraging to me,as am trying to gain an edge to be consistently profitable as a daily forex trader.
I will like you to send me more educational materials,as your articles sit well with me and this are the things am still learning as a daily trader.

What is best way to trade a high impact news since it gives high profit in return if trade well

From my own experience, use extreme low volumes instead of staying aside, but that’s if you have good sentimental analysis of that pair, I make quite some cash with high impact news, I’ve been caught on the wrong side too but that’s fewer than the right side,

The best thing to do little before high impact news is to place sell and buy orders at the same time with risking %2 of your capital. No matter what direction the market goes you only lose %2 and your profit is bigger then what you have risked on the trade.

Excellent post Justin! I don’t usually trade on Mondays or Fridays either..The best day it seems for me is on Tuesday and Wednesday ��

Thanks for the heads up. Mondays are slow indeed. But as for me, I have observed that markets move on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. I rarely hold trades over the weekend. I use daily chart for setups but 4hr chart for entry and exit.

I agree with your sentiments 100%

t hHi
trading the news is the worst set up
risk management is the best set up
thanks for your input
regards

Completely agree with everything. Worst day for me is Friday, as you said, the wait and potential for gaps on open Monday is too stressful. That said, do you employ any different kind of approach with trades carrying over to the next week?

I totally agree with your comments, Justin. Valuable confirmation! How much before the end of session would you resist trading? Cheers, Keith

Thanks Justin for this lesson it’s powerful��

Right on point Sir

Really thank you thank you again .

Thanks a lot sir.

A gem! Thank you Justin

Thank you for all the free information you provide on your website. If you trade mainly on the daily time frame and enter a trade on a Thursday, do you close it out on a Friday so as to avoid holding it over the weekend?

If I have made significant gains, I will close at Fridays end and possibly reenter on Monday/ Tuesday.

Awesome post. I had given up on forex before now but applying your methods have made me believe I can still make it here. Thanks for sharing your knowledge.

Hi Justin,
You are there again as usual with your wonderful and insightful articles. This is so helpful to me, now that i am still battling with my emotions. I think i need to be more disciplined and work on my emotions. thanks a million. Please more articles on how to handle emotions in trading the forex market will be highly appreciated.

Thanks for the heads up.I also think that the first two weeks of the month is the worst time to trade coz it contains news that move the market.

Great sharing Mr. Ben, I completely concour. You are just wonderful.

What if you are allready in the trade? Do you cancel the SL waiting for violent turbulance or what?

Nice lesson justin. I had a question here, my grandpa said that trading in the end of the year is not a good idea. Its that right?

If one or both of a pair have a public holiday (eg a bank holiday) on what would otherwise be a trading day.

Thanks Justin, I’ll keep that in mind

This is a great write up. Thanks great man

you are on point as always dear Justin. I concur that Fridays are the worst days to trade, but also to me another experience of when not to trade is placing a trade right after a major win. I have noticed that the joy and excitement this brings often leads to a lot of miscalculations or uneven analysis. So, to me after series of major wins, step aside till the emotions are settled. Thanks.

Dear Justin, thank you very much for this material, that is very interesting and helpful, because it is the way how to think about trading. I hope that I will be able to follow all your instruction and get on the right successful way in my trading. Thank you. Milan

That’s great cobber very logical 3 rules set in concrete in my brain

hi, Thank you for your guide. I had some questions. Please answer.
1.If we arrived the market on Tuesday and did not reach the target by Friday, we should leave the market on Friday?
2-If Friday we arrived at the trigger we would go to the market or not؟

Thank you Justin – as always great advice.

Thanks Ben. I am 100% on your side

This is nice. Better protect your capital than loose it in a jify. I go with you. Thanks

Why don’t you said when is the best time for trade

Wow thanks so much for the info.I’m new in this but quite interested in forex.

First of all, i thank you so much for the experience of yours that you have voluntarily shared, more power to your elbow. sir, I’m a Forex trader and i have traded for like a year now with the real money, not demo this time, even though i had practiced with the demo before trading with the real money, like i was instructed by my instructor when i began. Sir, there is where i find much more interesting in your analysis . . ., where you talked about when and when not to take position.Correct me if i misquote you, you said it isn’t advisable to take any position if the first initial candle is not broken. I’m bothered as to how close the stop-loss would be from where position could have been earlier initiated, considering the manner at which the market price movement works (zigzag). Don’t you think that by the time you enter the trade after the first candle is broken, the market price movement would have been close to your take-profit level if you had entered earlier?

Thank you for this insight. I have to fully agree, as i lost my capital on those 3 areas. Well, it is an expensive education for me, the hard way

Thank you very much for dendisg me an education materials.Its a big help for a new trader like me . I’m hoping you will share more materials on us. Thank you.

Awesome. You hit the nil right on the head. Trading the news is the cancer that has been slowly killing me. Congs!

Hello you mean I should always wait after close of New York 5pm before taking any trades.

This is excellent Mr Justin.
Please keep up with the good work. It’s highly appreciated

Thanks for this article.

A question sir… for trading from Tuesday to Thursday… based on the Daily timeframe, what would the potential average pip range that can be achieved? 100 – 200pips? Thanks

Thanks for this post

Tqvm, very nice concept and strategy

Now another thing for 2020 i am going to see what high impact events are coming up before i place a trade. this article really helps, thanks Justin.

Is this will effect when u r trading daily time frame……

I am very grateful for these valuable yet free lessons..

Thanks a lot.So what about the early taken stop order or limit order? Should we close them before a highly impacted comming new?

thanks for sharing

You are 100% correct! Fridays are a “no”, “no” for me and I completely avoid ‘big’ news.

Sunday and Friday, and again to not enter a position immediately before or after high-impact news

I’m sorry I mean to say Monday and Friday,and again to not enter a position immediately before or after high-impact news

This is so helpful boss.I celebrate you sir

So true Justin I just blown my Acc on Monday so now I know to analyzed from 4pm and 5pm.

Thanks for commenting.

dear – Many thanks for your professional and honest advice. is certainly appreciated.

I’m proudly of u’re knowledge,thank u

After losing a trade which should have gone in your favor….. don’t try to fight the market back

Right, avoid revenge trades at all cost.

I also agree with you. Wednesdays,Thursdays and Friday turn to be the best from what i have observed.

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When NOT to Trade

Unfortunately I have stopped trading, mostly due to the fact that I no longer play MvM and have collected the hats that I want. I’ll post what I can, but updates will be very few and far between in the future.

Anyways, thanks again everyone!

These are awesome people [www.tf2outpost.com] for item misrepresentation and a trader who had dealt with him personally has reported him on SteamRep [forums.steamrep.com] . Best of luck with the report!

Why this guy sucks:
-He (badly) tried to convince me to price-fix with him
-He gift wrapped several items using an alt and stated that they were signed by well-known TF2 players
-He puts up false C/O on most of his trades
-His name is stupid

Recently I posted a chat I had with a user attempting to price fix:
http://puu.sh/6zzGF

Initially his name was censored, but this d0uche has been doing some pretty shady ♥♥♥♥, so I want people to be aware of him. I book-marked his trade a while ago, just because I wanted to see what more idiotic things he would get up to:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17407004

He did not disappoint.

First, I noticed he had multiple trades open stating that he had ‘signed’ items from some well known TF2 players. These trades were:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17825390
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17852079
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17858456

Well, cool items, yeah! The knife was from stabby stabby (like omg a good Spy!) and the scatter from SalTV (a UGC shoutcaster). But upon looking at whom they were actually gifted from, this guy came up.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/76561198075475724
http://puu.sh/6TMjp

Oh, oh my. 65 hours in TF2? Hands up for anyone who thinks that is d0uche’s alt account. Never would have guessed.

To add to it, the knife had offers from some guy named bun. partatu, while the scatter had an offer from qerterio. Oddly enough, these people cannot be found in steam, and they didn’t post on the trades. Checking his previous trades, seems that most his C/O are unfounded. Huh.

Bravo sir. This is probably the most pathetic and half-♥♥♥♥♥ scamming attempt I have ever seen. Quite an achievement.

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